AfterHour logo
Profile Photo

MrPerdrix

0

Dec 29

🚨 Be Careful with $MVIS – Signs of a Repeat Pump-and-Dump 🚨
I wanted to share a warning about MicroVision Inc. ($MVIS). If you’ve been paying attention, you might have noticed the stock popping up on social media again, but before you jump in, let’s talk about what happened back in 2021—and why you should tread carefully now. The 2021 Pump-and-Dump In 2021, $MVIS became the target of a pump-and-dump. Here’s what went down: • Massive Price Surge: The stock went from around $5 to over $28 in a matter of months. This was fueled by hype on platforms like Reddit’s WallStreetBets and other social media. • Reality Check: Despite the hype, $MVIS didn’t have the fundamentals to justify that price. Their revenue was minimal, and they were burning cash. Once reality set in, the stock crashed over 50%, and late investors got stuck holding the bag. • No Long-Term Gains: After the dust settled, it was clear this was a classic pump-and-dump—prices were artificially inflated, insiders and early traders made bank, and the average retail investor got hurt. Why This Matters Now We’re starting to see the same patterns again: 1. Social Media Buzz: There’s a growing wave of posts hyping $MVIS, often with little substance. It’s all about “potential” without evidence to back it up. 2. Unexplained Volume Spikes: The stock has been seeing sudden surges in trading volume, even when there’s no major news or fundamental changes. 3. Herd Mentality: Once again, people are jumping in, chasing quick gains without doing proper research. Not saying this is happening now, but signs do point to it. Be careful out there Sources: https://investorplace.com/2021/04/reddit-send-mvis-stock-100-short-sellers-playing-with-fire/ https://www.newsweek.com/what-microvision-wallstreetbets-subreddit-fuels-47-price-surge-mirroring-gamestop-1586664 https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/28/heres-why-microvision-stock-soared-today/
👍
15
3697 views
Comments (10)
Profile Photo
Dec 29
Edited my DD and commented pointing here. 🙏 @ouranos see what ya started? 💪
❤️
2
Profile Photo
I remember that in 2021- got lucky and made some quick cash, but a lot of ppl got burned
Profile Photo
Dec 29
Hello, large (ish) MVIS shareholder here, have held since 2021 (sadly I didn’t buy at the lows before the 2021 surge but have been accumulating since)! This is definitely a fair warning from your perspective as an impartial bystander, but from my perspective as someone contributing to these threads / buzz: definitely not telling anyone to jump in without research. It’s a very risky stock (as are most stocks). I (and many others, and most of us are regularly involved with the r/MVIS subreddit) am sharing news/starting discussion on MVIS to bring it to others’ radars as the opportunity (albeit risky) that it is. Yes, the fundamentals were not there for 2021, and I think it was much more of a hype surge then. It is potentially a hype surge again now but it is not totally absent fundamentals: as someone who has been monitoring the company for years now, it really is lining up so that the fundamentals will arrive in 2025 (and ramp up exponentially from there). If you’re the type of investor who would rather wait until the fundamentals are there (ie jumping in once the tens of millions in revenues are being received, rather than jumping in now when those levels of revenues are only anticipated in the near term) that’s totally valid and would hugely derisk the play. Of course, when you do that you also impose a large limitation on the potential upside, the reward for getting in early. I’m in with a large position now at a very decent cost basis from accumulating these last few years, and expecting huge validation on the fundamentals in 2025. A hype surge in the even shorter term would be fun, but isn’t what I’ve been accumulating for years for. High risk, high reward - not for everyone, and maybe see you once the fundamentals are in place.
💯
3
💎
6
❤️
3
🙏
2
Profile Photo
Thanks for this. I saw a post about it
🌚
In my opinion, it wasn't a pump & dump. You didn't mention any of the fundamentals. The 2021 price increase was due to the market expecting a large volume RFQ being announced. Unfortunately, automotive OEMs pushed back their timelines, and the deal was delayed. MVIS is still competing for the same large volume RFQs and we are still waiting for a major deal to be announced. That being said, be responsible with your investments & trades.
🚀
2
Profile Photo
Just bought 2000
🚀
6
Profile Photo
Dec 29
Great discussion. This is real.
👍
1
💎
Dec 29
whats the short interest on this one?
🚀
Dec 29
Yes it’s risky and part of the meme basket, however there is some fundamental tied to it, and really if we want to be truthful SirJack made vast majority of his gains from shitty companies that had small catalyst that allowed them to go up, nearly all the stuff he bought was pumped and dumped so we are just traders looking for good gains. If MVIS can go up huge and then die off Idc as long as I profit and sell
💯
2
💎
There is no herd mentality. I and many other MVIS shareholders have followed the company for years, in the belief that they have the best tech for a number of different uses. This was strengthened by the purchase of Ibeo completing in early 2023. MVIS now have Mavin for long range automotive use, Movia L/Movia Safety for industrial uses such as forklift trucks, agricultural use, mining and robotics. They also have Movia S which is as small as 2 fun size snickers bars, for short range automotive use to cocoon the car alongside a Mavin unit. They also have the Mosaik software which is used by OEMs and also by Luxoft. They have 15 industrial deals on the table, and there was plenty of information in the last earnings call about fork lift trucks and that Sumit watched the Movia Safety being demonstrated on a fork lift truck and as much as they tried, they couldn’t make it crash. There is a hidden webpage for Movia Safety that came to light very recently and there was the PR that said in addition to the original production capacity of 45k units per year, they have increased production capacity as demand in 2025 is significantly higher. In the last EC Sumit said the price of the safety units with the software would be $2k. So that would be revenue of somewhere between $90m to $180m depending on how much the production increases by, assuming it’s no more than 2 shifts of 45k units per year. There are also 7 high volume RFQs on the table from global automotive OEMs that have to make decisions very soon, because they need LiDAR in all cars by September 2029. Allowing the usual time for OEM testing and integration, they really need to commit to a LiDAR sensor in 2025. There will be substantial NRE income for each deal they win. Then there’s the elephant in the room of MSFT. They need MVIS tech to honour the IVAS order, so a new contract will need to be signed for that. Then add in the persistent shorting that MVIS has endured. We (MVIS shareholders) are so close to seeing the company transform into a sustainable and profitable business, so you will have to forgive us for any enthusiastic posts you might see! They received $75m of finance from HTC capital at a competitive rate of 10% over a 2 year period (not 10% Pa just to avoid any confusion). They have reduced their cash burn to $48-50m per year. In contrast Luminar had been spending more than that in a month, are losing money on every sensor sold to Volvo and are in significantly more debt and paying 14% Pa interest on their debt. Mavin was designed to be compact, able to discretely integrate into a car either in the thin part between the roof and the windscreen, or behind the windscreen, or in the headlights. It is aimed at circa $500 per unit for high volume deals which is the number one factor for OEMs to adopt LiDAR into all passenger vehicles. This sentiment was echoed by Jun from Cepton and Omer from Innoviz. Mavin has a better spec than any other LiDAR, production can be scaled up easily and Sumit believes they will be the last LiDAR company standing. The industrial deals will support the company until the larger revenue from automotive come in, but there will be NRE from automotive in the meantime. As a shareholder, my only concern at all is that NVDA could try and buy us out before we get to $100+. We have Jeff Herbst on the MVIS board, he worked at NVDA dealing with M&A for 20 years and he is very much still in with Jensen Huang, they have been pictured together at events. MVIS is already available on the NVDA Drive platform and they could make plenty from the Augmented Reality tech by licensing it to all the goliaths as/when smart glasses take off. My accounts are UK ones that can’t be linked to here even if I wanted to, but myself and my OH and our children own in excess of 120k shares now plus an additional upside of £250 per cent that the share price goes up. Everything we own is in tax free accounts and mark my words, this stock will be life changing. Short term there could be volatility, that’s part and parcel with MVIS, it was under $1 not many days back, but where we are now is a tiny fraction of where we will be. We are happy to wait for it to play out, buying the dips whenever they occur because nothing else we’ve read about has the same potential.
❤️
3