$WE Will Survive (maybe)
Alright, looks like we need some wrinkly brain DD with a metric ton of hopium today.
Here's how I see the play:
- Yes, the lowering daily volume has looked troubling but it's still much higher than all the days prior to 8/8 which averaged only like 10M shares per day. We still have 1 hour to go and today's volume is at 92M.
- Price action feels good to me. Been watching the tape and still seeing giant market buys, like the one yesterday 8/14 at 15:15 ET for 3M shares and a few sprinkled in today eating at big ask walls
- The volume feels materially different ever since 8/8 and no previous earnings call was able to drum up this much volume and attention. To me, this stock finally feels "awakened".
- It's been very interesting researching the exact accounting definition of "substantial doubt" https://www.bdo.com/insights/assurance/guide-to-going-concern-assessments. Complete speculation and extreme hopium here: I wonder if by declaring that, this makes it much easier for the company to renegotiate leases. Given the amount of workers, office space, and cities they're in, it feels like a "too big to fail" situation and now all parties involved are pushed to make sure $WE survives
- Brand value is much higher than all the other bankruptcy stocks and feels equal to a GME or AMC, at least in terms of relevance in pop culture. With RTO increasing and a hot topic these days, this can re-engage the broader retail trading community more than the other niche bankruptcy stocks.
All it really needs is one big spark to light the fuse. Unfortunately there isn't a specific catalyst or date we can rely on, it truly really is just hopium.
⚠️ But to be fair, let's also talk about the risks:
- Delisting risk - is the big one, with an Oct 10 deadline but realistically a Sept 10 deadline because the average price also needs to be over $1 for a whole month. Exact wording: "The Company can regain compliance with the minimum share price requirement at any time during the six-month cure period if, on the last trading day of any calendar month during the cure period or on the last day of the cure period, the Company has (i) a closing share price of at least $1.00, and (ii) an average closing share price of at least $1.00 over the 30 trading-day periods ending on the last trading day of that month". They're likely to be granted a 180 day extension, but looking at timelines of other extensions, this might not be known until Oct 11
- Bankrupty risk - likely chapter 11 to restructure and renegotiate or pre-maturely end leases on unprofitable office spaces. No idea how the stock market will react to this or when it might get announced
- Volume risk - if volume continues to slide all the way back to 10M shares, then the chance of the play being dead increases significantly
- Technical risk - My triangle crayon drawing got broken downwards https://imgur.com/a/3ho03MP
This one definitely isn't for the feint of heart, but hey, GME wasn't either in Oct 2020. Albeit GME definitely had a few more things going for it.
Am I just trying to chase that euphoric high again? Maybe. Maybe Burry is too.
Again, less than 1% of my entire port, so make sure ya'll take risk accordingly.
Still in.
All time
-17.05%
-$12,788.14