Due Diligence for $CLBR (note: this was origionally published on substack and will be easier to read on there: https://thegoldencalf.substack.com/p/due-diligence-for-clbr ) $CLBR is a SPAC that will merge into GrabAGun ($PEW/$PEWW), a profitable arms manufacturer on July 20th with many catalysts including a merger, e-commerce expansion, and Trump Jr. on the board. What is $CLBR? CLBR 1.96%↑ is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). Basically, a SPAC is a company with an upcoming merger. Usually, SPACs are announced before the merger is actually announced, and they generally have a cash-redemption value (usually $10, as is the case with $CLBR). So, SPACs have a price floor built in, and essentially, you take on the risk of the merger for early access to a company. Recently, CLBR 1.96%↑ announced that they plan to merge with GrabAGun ($PEW class A ordinary shares, $PEWW warrants), a popular, profitable arms seller with ties to the Trump family. There’s a lot of hype behind this one, and the price-to-risk ratio is pretty attractive here, especially under $15. I have about 300+ shares at around $14.5, and am prepared to buy more. On June 20, I scalped all of my shares at $17, so I only reloaded today (June 23, probably the day before I’m writing this). All that said, now is a great time to get in. When was the Merger Proposed? The merger is coming up! CLBR 1.96%↑ just had a shareholder vote on June 20th that included voting on the merger. Those results haven’t come in yet, but of course, it’ll pass. The “Extraordinary General Meeting” of Colombier II Shareholders to approve the business combination is scheduled for July 15, 2025. So, the merger is coming up soon, and it’s all but voted on basically. By the end of July, the merger should have gone through. This is the primary catalyst that I’m riding, and I expect to exit about half of my position before the merger and the other half sometime after. What is the Price Action & What are GrabAGun’s Financials? The 52-week low is $10.15 with a 52-week high of $17.47, so CLBR 1.96%↑ is trading in a pretty tight range, it’s easy to make money, especially with that $10 floor price. I think, under $15 is free money. On January 6, 2025, CLBR 1.96%↑ entered into an agreement with GrabAGun with the option to vote on the proposed merger down the road. Now, the votes are in from ordinary shareholders, and they’re at the cusp of merging. This transaction was valued at $150 million, $100 million of stock for CLBR 1.96%↑ shareholders, and $50 million of operating cash for $PEW. This isn’t the largest M&A deal ever, but it’s a strong one, providing $PEW $50 million of operating cash, on top of their strong year-over-year returns. This should make for excellent price action when $PEW opens in late July. GrabAGun currently boasts strong, consistent returns, making $98 million in 2023 (+14% YoY growth from 2022). In 2024, revenue was $137.5 million; however, margins narrowed to $99.5 million (+9.2% YoY) due to mostly e-commerce operating and advertising expenses. Notably, GrabAGun’s EBITDA is $5.3 million with reported positive cash flow for years— this financial health is extremely uncommon for SPACs. In fact, I’ve literally never seen a positive cash flow SPAC, personally. These numbers are the biggest selling point to me. Other Catalysts (Trump Jr., Manipulative Politics, and The World at Large) As mentioned briefly in the previous paragraph, GrabAGun is pivoting into e-commerce and online sales, with a seeming emphasis on phone-website usability. That makes me think that GrabAGun’s larger strategy revolves around emotional or political buying, a very evil and smart strategy. For instance, if GrabAGun decides to release politically charged Instagram ads (IE, “How are you going to protect your beautiful blonde-haired daughter without a gun, little man? There’s a war going on in Iran…”), they could easily capitalize on FUD. I’m not saying they’re exactly doing this right now, I’m saying that I believe they’re pivoting into this and I believe they will— they’re on track to. They’re also pivoting into dropshipping and other types of unique online retailing for a gun brand. I don’t want to get too into all the ins and outs of their online strategy, but you should know it’s unique and interesting for a gun retailer. Further still, gun stocks are generally very nice to hold because, as volatility and instability rise in the world, gun stocks go up. Generally, the more unstable the world, the more guns are sold. This offers investors strong, profitable spikes when their other stocks are down, letting them pivot into undervalued assets when a catastrophe happens. With where we are in the world right now, that’s not a bad hedge at all. It’s not a primary reason why I’d buy/hold the company, but it’ll create good price action opportunities throughout $PEW’s lifecycle. Another catalyst for $PEW that’s been making a lot of headlines is that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor for and shareholder in GrabAGun. This further pushes GrabAGun into a political milieu, which is very wise of them. Traditionally, Republican voters have supported gun ownership (especially for extreme cases such as automatic weapons), which makes $PEW’s right-leaning leadership and messaging compelling to people who are into that. Buying a gun from GrabAGun isn’t just buying a gun; it’s buying a ticket to show you support Trump and/or the Republicans. The MAGA-merch industrial complex is already such a powerful financial force, start pivoting guns to line up with MAGA messaging, now that’s smart. So, GrabAGun is going to manipulate the hogs into thinking they need their guns for a political statement. It reminds me of when the Catholic Church was selling indulgences, the things that you could buy to make your journey through purgatory faster. Genius. This partnership with Trump Jr. could also have other catalysts, such as a Trump-branded golden pistol (I can see imagine it now). There’s no news on this yet, but I would be shocked if they don’t introduce a Trump line of accessories & limited edition guns. What’s My Price Target? Over $17 up to maybe $20 pre-merger (I always like to hedge my bets), and over $25 post-merger within a month or two of the merger. It could go much higher, though, post-merger, and just start running like crazy. I think this will be a super easy play to make money on overall. Just sell when it's up. Conclusion Thanks for reading my due diligence of CLBR 1.96%↑ / $PEW. I’m excited for this one, and we won’t have to wait long for it to start running! Remember, this is not financial advice; this is spiritual advice. Please think twice before you roll the dice. May your trades be blessed, and may your path be trodden with financial boons. EDIT 6/26: I’m not going to touch the post but looking into it, it looks like it’ll switch tickers within a day. So July 15 is the vote, it should be buttoned up by the morning of the 16. I misunderstood the timeline of ticket change. Not a few weeks - a month.