A power Couple: IV30 % Rank and Open Interest % Rank
Key Concepts:
IV30 (30-Day Implied Volatility):
The market's expectation of how volatile a stock will be over the next 30 days, derived from options pricing. It’s crucial for assessing options pricing and expected stock movements.
Current Option Volume:
The number of contracts traded for options (calls and puts) on a specific stock or index during a trading day. It shows how actively options on the stock are being traded.
IV%Rank:
A measure of how high the current implied volatility (IV) is compared to its range over a specific period (e.g., the past year). An IV30%Rank > 80% means the current IV is higher than 80% of the past year values, signaling potentially overpriced options.
Open Interest %Rank:
The percentile ranking of the current open interest (total number of outstanding options contracts) compared to the historical range. A Rank > 70% means high open interest relative to its historical range, indicating strong market participation and liquidity.
Boring stuff, right? Let’s see how we can combine those two to find potential winners
Example (For the options screener, I use Market Chameleon, but you can use whatever screener works for you)
1. Focus on Penny Stocks (Price <$5):
Filter for stocks trading under $5, which are typically considered penny stocks.
These stocks are more likely to experience sharp movements due to their low price and market capitalization.
2. Combine Metrics:
IV30%Rank > 70%: Indicates options are priced for high volatility. A spike in IV often precedes significant price movement, as it reflects heightened expectations for change.
Open Interest %Rank > 70%: Confirms there’s active trading and liquidity in the options market, increasing the likelihood of meaningful participation by informed traders.
3. Look for Additional Indicators of a Price Increase:
Unusual Options Volume: Spikes in options volume can suggest insider trading or informed speculation about a potential move.
Catalysts: Check for upcoming earnings reports, FDA approvals, partnerships, or news that could drive the stock higher.
Technical Breakouts: Look for chart patterns like breakouts above resistance, which often coincide with rising prices.
Filters:
Stock Price <$5
IV30%Rank > 70%
Open Interest %Rank > 70%
Optional: Market Cap <$500M (to focus on smaller-cap stocks).
Do some stocks from the excel sound familiar?
TLDR: You can use the combination of IV30/IV% Rank and Current Volume/Open Interest % Rank to identify stocks with potential for price increases. However, it’s crucial to approach this strategy with caution.