🐂BULL CASE; $RXRX
TLDR; Recursion Pharmaceuticals is the Palantir of biology, AI and medicine. $100M in ARR. $RXRX will 19x to $133. Currently priced at $6.97. Buy Buy Buy!
This will be a fluid DD. Drop a line below if I missed something that needs attention. I will edit this post as it grows. Crowdsource DD experiment!
Company profile
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is an AI drug discovery company. Has offices in Salt Lake City, Utah and San Francisco, California🇺🇸. Branches located in London, UK and Montreal, Toronto in Canada. Best in class pharma and AI talent in the world. Currently priced $6.97 with a market capitalization of $1.9B.
Institution holders
BlackRock - 20,742,797 shares (7.5% of the company)
Vanguard - 23,610,916 shares (8.82%)
Kinnevik AB - 11,905,668 shares (4.3%)
ARK - 32.77M shares (11.74%)
Bailie Gifford - 26.59M shares (9.54%)
RA Capital - 15.38M shares (5.51%)
Sumitomo Matsui - 9.99M shares (3.58%)
Nvidia - 7.7M shares (2.8%) I believe $NVDA will buy more. https://x.com/RecursionPharma/status/1806700754503110997
Cramer friends are buying, here is a mad money clip with Chris https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGw6v0MFPM4
Jamie Dimon and JPM has a stake https://x.com/RecursionChris/status/1772958321084960819
…and many more! About 95% held by institutions and insiders. All institutions have also been increasing their position this year. Let’s join the big boys club here! So this is comparable to when institutions and funds were collecting NVDA in 2018.
RecursionOS
First mover in the AI drug discovery. $RXRX supercomputer has 503 H100 Tensor Core GPU and 63 DGX H200. The tech is 35th most powerful in the world. The OS has turned drug discovery into a search like research vs the old trial and error. Compounds can be found faster and before work even start in the lab. This is where I see the relationship that Recursion is the Palantir of biology and medicine. RecursionOS is a suite of tools and medicine design that’s proprietary. Similar to PLTR software. The technology is that good! https://www.recursion.com/operating-system
Revenue
$26.1M in revenue this quarter represeting a 148% YoY increase. $500M alone can come from payments with Roche-Genentech. Potential of 100M annual recurring revenue (ARR). The AAR could increase from other partnerships and RecursionOS sales. Btw, this is revenue before any drugs coming online. So remember to give the hand ✋ to anyone who says this company has no revenue. The optioned revenue from Roche, Bayer, Sanofi and Merck will be ample enough to give shareholder value.
Financials
$427.6M in cash as of Sept 30, 2024 and upward of $800M after merge completion with $EXAI. The burn rate could last to 2027. This company isn’t going bankrupt.
Catalysts
12 readouts from Recursion and Exscientia combined into 2025. Also 4 earning reports. Partnerships announcements. Institutions increasing their position including Nvidia. We have ~20 news catalysts and event here. So when the next time someone asks what are the catalysts? They must be not paying attention. Forward them to this post.
Management
CEO @recursionchris (on X) owns about 95% of his life savings and stock portfolio in RXRX. Don’t ask how I know. But it’s very true. So the next time he sells, it’s him diversifying his life work. Chris holds about 762K+ shares and possibly more throughout many accounts. He has a company tattoo. https://x.com/RecursionChris/status/1747265218437349847 The commitment is strong.
Price targets
$20.17 when majority of the shorts has covered their position.
$36 when market realizes this is one of a kind pure play company in AI drug discovery.
$69 when the company shows a path to sustainable revenue through drug, partnerships, and software revenue.
$133+ would mean Recursion is a $38B company with 1 successful approved drug ready for patients. When the company becomes talk of town as the investment you want to be in like $PLTR has become.
Short Squeeze data
Currently 59M shares are shorted. Decreased 5% in the last 15 days. The shorts have begun to cover! All short interest data pointing the stock is gaining upward momentum. Remember to look at short interest as a positive because we know who’s on the wrong side of the trade. Especially with this DD available to everyone. Don’t get scared out of your shares!
Charts
The stock is trading above its 50 day moving average for the first time since February. It has broken out of the of the descending wedge. Higher lows and higher highs since September. Stock performance and chart momentum heading to $10.
AfterHour pre-rich data
November 7; 500 owners, 292,638 shares. @mandalorian @jupp @culp_45 @suppo @oneofus @trollstein @_u_ @joo @retireearly @ndg2479 @sirjack @gordongeiko @literalcorndog @holleywood @floridabulldawg @bobdog @christ @squeezedeez @houseflipper @rrador
Hope this has helped new users on AfterHour.