Entered $TQQQ aggressively here. Looking to manage it off the 50 day. If we don’t finish the week (tomorrow) above the 50 day, I’m dumping it EOD tomorrow. You can approximate risk by taking a multiple of the ATR on the Q’s as a percentage times 3. There’s probability theory with standard deviations if you want. One ATR plus or minus the price equals the expected move range and roughly 68.50% chance of staying inside. Meaning 31.5% chance outside of that, of which you only care about downside leaving ~15.75% chance of breaching 1 std dev downside. Since I am holding a little more than 1 day you may want to multiply it. 2 std deviation means only 2.5% chance of downside breach in a day. On 14 day average ATR is 8.25 or only 1.62% multiply by 3 for 3x and you are talking about under 5% loss or under 10% if you want 2x std deviation move. So one can use this to position size. Or example, At 20% of portfolio a 10% loss would be a 2% portfolio loss. This is an estimated risk. If you want 1% per trade risk you just take a 10% portfolio. While 3x may be down more than 3x in a sharp move and they may not be efficient as exactly 3x normally, 2x standard deviation is a rare move. Failure of 50 day may be more significant but I think you have enough support at $qqq $500 for a high probability of 1 std dev holding. The concept of “entry on exit” or even below the exit may at first sound like risk is zero or positive but in practical terms all stocks have a daily average move and you should consider that your “risk”. And your upside you can look at past swings off the 50 day or something. When you have risk, reward, and probability, you can model expected outcomes, and when you can do that you can trade more intelligently. In general you buy growth above and off of the 50 day and buy value below the 200 day, or you can use SPX as the signal. SPX opened the week below the 50 day so we would need quite the rally from here for growth to be in play off that signal. Nevertheless, the 50day isn’t exact and is just a reference point to manage risk and measure momentum. So I am comfortable with a speculative entry here. The January effect also suggests upwards, but we should know pretty quickly whether or not the signal for upside is going to continue. If you looked at last July-October, you can see that we can easily make false signals slicing through the 50 day on the downside and upside before failing and then we had a 200 day moving average entry in the nasdaq. If you wait for closer to the closing price today you might avoid some noise. Given the turn of month and January effect I didn’t want to wait.